Recession Very Likely In 2007

As the housing market continues to weaken it will have serious ramifications for the overall US economy. "The collapse of the housing bubble will throw the economy into a recession, and quite likely a severe recession," warned a July report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Furthermore, Lehman Brothers report, "[A] turn in the housing market is central to our economic forecast. " As reported by the AP on Nov 11, 2005:

A downturn in housing could mean more than 1.3 million lost jobs, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts, bumping up the national unemployment rate by 1 percent and the unemployment rate in house-mad California by 2 percent. Those numbers don't include likely job cuts in housing-dependent businesses, such as banking, furniture and building materials.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research predicts worse, saying a bubble burst would mean the loss of 5 million to 6.3 million jobs.

The housing run-up has financed consumer spending, creating more than $5 trillion in bubble wealth, the center estimates. Consumers have used "cash-out" mortgages to pay for everything from new kitchens to college tuition.

The current economic predicament is simply unsustainable. The double digit price appreciation of the housing boom years has come to an abrupt end. Once the housing bubble pops, a recession is almost inevitable. Here are other factors that will contribute to a future recession:

• High Energy Costs
• Federal Debt & Deficit
• Continuing Housing Bust
• High Consumer Debt
• Large Trade Deficit
• Continued Offshoring
• Security Costs

Billionaire speculator George Soros said he did not expect the United States to fall into recession in 2006 - but he does the following year.

For the past 4 years the US economic 'recovery' has been too dependent on cheap credit and the housing boom. The boom is fast becoming a bust. The convergence of the housing bust with other significant economic factors will very likely put the US into a recession by early 2007.

Traffic Declining on Heroes' Handbook

Traffic has been declining on thsi blog.

We need away to reverse this trend. How? Discuss!

An interesting quote

Since I deal with kids with special needs, I oftentimes have students that make less than appropriate decisions about how to spend time during "silent" work time. After discussing various strategies with colleagues, one of them said this:

"We are entrusted to make academic decisions for those students who refuse to make successful academic decisions for themselves."

In the real world, however, these students won't have us around to rely on. I'm not working with moderately- or severely-disabled kids anymore. The students I'm working with are "normal" but have a few learning difficulties. Is it really our place to make these decisions for these students, as my colleague suggests, or is it more of our responsibility to model proper decision-making techniques? Is it even our job to do that much? Should we just let the kids who don't care fail? Should we just let the kids who are too distracted to do their work fail?

Oy

It's been crunch time the past two weeks with grading papers and all. Things should calm down a bit by Thanksgiving.

The past two days I was away in Atlantic City for the New Jersey Education Association's teachers convention. Apparently other states don't have the luxury of getting off from school like we do. That's one of the good things about having such a powerful union here in Jersey :)

Anyway, the convention was fun. I got to hang out with one of my gorgeous co-workers and spend time getting feshnikert with her while watching the Rutgers football win on Thursday. And I learned a lot at the seminars! Don't worry: your children missed school for a good cause, I promise! :)

And there was also reason to party over the election. I do believe that the tide has begun to turn...

Who Will Control The US Congress

My predictions. Who will control the:

US Senate: Too Close To Call
US House: Democrats Will Win

Dear Hardcore Heroes' Handbook Readers...

I apologize for the dearth of posts in the past week. Things have been hectic at work and I haven't had an opportunity to write. School is going decently overall. I had to kick two kids out in the space of 3 minutes yesterday, but it put me in a good mood afterwards.

I finished the section of my book on General McClellan and now I'm on to "Fighting Joe" Hooker. I'm only a few pages into the chapter, but it's really remarkable so far. The author opens by making comparisons between him and Ulysses S. Grant. He shows how the two of them were so similar in terms of resume and accomplishment as of early 1863, but how Hooker was ultimately a failure as the top general, while Grant won the War. His point was that, for Lincoln, and other chief executives at the time, picking good generals was often a roll of the dice. He provides some examples to back up his point. I will have to think it over though before I pass judgment, though.

Btw, I am not posting extensively on the Kerry fiasco. If that's enough to make anyone vote Republican in this election, then you have tapioca pudding for brains. And that's me being nice. Anyway, I encourage people to post more comments! I'm curious what everyone thinks...provided we have readers left :(

Freedom Plaza in DC

Freedom Plaza in DC

The Smell of Fear

President George Bush: Frank, please consider filling a post I'm creating. It may mean long hours and dangerous nights, surrounded by some of the scummiest elements in our society.
Lt. Frank Drebin: You want me to be in your cabinet?

- The Naked Gun 2 and 1/2

Nostalgia for ex-president George H.W. Bush and his administration has gotten out of hand. I realize his son has been an unmitigated disaster as president himself, but we really have to keep things in perspective. The father only seems better since everything that the son touches manages to fall apart. There's a reason why the voters gave H.W. the boot in '92...

In the winter of 2004, journalist Tom Frank wrote an article in The New Repbulic basically exploding some of the more recent myths about Bush the Elder. I recommend reading it.
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=express&s=frank122704

Frank makes the case that W is actually a better president than H.W., which I disagree with. I should note, however, that since the article is a couple of years old, some things he mentions ended up being much worse than he thought they would be. His opinion might be different today.

In addition, I think that it is important to raise this issue as people laud not only Bush I, but also James Baker (an overrated political hack) and Brent Scowcroft (an adherent of the "realist" view of foreign policy, who would have no problem seeing thousands die if it doesn't fit in America's national interests...as defined by him).

So I recommend that all those liberals suffering from this nostalgia knock it off and find some real people worth having in the government. Like say the junior senator from Illinois...

Athletics, Employment, OR School

We need a greater focus on academics in this country. Last week I overheard a couple of parents talking. The basic gist of the conversation was that schools are not properly teaching students to balance their time. Those parents believed that it is the school's responsibility to teach students how to balance their schoolwork, sports, academics, and social lives. The discussion then fell to talking about how schools gave too much homework and that their kids were falling behind because they were too tired to do the work when they got home from sports practice or their after-school jobs. Their solution? Give kids less homework or lower the standards expected of them on homework.

In high school, I had a part-time job and was on a sports team (and Captained the team my senior year), not to mention taking all AP/Honors/UConn co-op classes. Not only did I manage to get all of my homework done, I mantained a high GPA. I realize that many students don't have the ability to maintain all of these things, but it is not up to schools to set these priorities.

My parents set down very clear rules: if I didn't maintain the equivilant of a 3.0 in school, I was off the team and I was giving up my job. Period. There was no discussion, no wiggle room.

Here in Montgomery County, MD, as with the district I grew up in, the minimum GPA to play a sport is a 2.0 or you are removed from the team (at least, in theory ... some schools in the county haven't played so nice). You can also receive a work permit if you are a senior, enabling you to leave school early and earn both life experience and money.

But the focus must be on academics. It's bad enough that NCLB is eliminating helpful teaching methods in favor of forcing standardized testing, but it is the parents that need to stand firm and hold higher educational standards.

2006 Election Contest

I will be hosting an Election Night Viewing. For those invited to the viewing there will be a contest to win a $25 gift certificate to Target. Here are the rules:

All predictions for the contest must be received via email (to me) by 11:59pm (EST (Eastern Standard Time) on November 6th, 2006. One submission per person.

US Congress Contest

60% of your score will be determined by the House of Representatives Portion
40% of your score will be determined by the Senate Portion

The formula for your total score will be = ( ((Senate Portion Score) * .6) + ((House Portion Score) * .4) ). Whomever has the highest score wins the gift certificate.

Senate Portion (Currently it is D: 44 R:55 and I: 1)

Democrat: X
Republican: Y
Independent / Other: Z

X + Y + Z = 100 (it must equal 100 or your prediction is automatically disqualified).

Scoring: Thus if the actual (a) is D:50 R:49 I:1 and your prediction (p) was D:51 R:48 I:1 your score would be 98 for the Senate races. The formula is 100 - ( | Dp - Da | + | Rp - Ra | + | Ip - Ia | ) . Please note: The | | symbol is for the absolute value of.

House of Representatives Portion (Currently it is D: 202 R:232 and I: 1)

Democrat: X
Republican: Y
Independent / Other: Z

X + Y + Z = 435 (it must equal 435 or your prediction is automatically disqualified).

Scoring: Thus if the actual (a) is D:215 R:215 I:5 and your prediction (p) was D:210 R:220 I:5 your score would be 97.71 . The formula is 100 - (( | Dp - Da | + | Rp - Ra | + | Ip - Ia | ) / 4.35 ). Please note: The | | symbol is for the absolute value of.

A new addition! It's great to have so many team members with a wide array of viewpoints. As H. Abiff noted, he and I have known each other for several years now. His comprehensive knowledge of history and politics will add a lot to the discussion. Also, his being to the left of myself will make this a lively debate. Stay tuned!

Greetings... H. Conway was nice enough to invite me to post on this blog ...

I, like H. Conway, am a high school history teacher, currently working on his MS in Special Education in a prestigious eastern university (I don't want to give away too much about myself). My politics tend to be leftist, though not quite as radical as they were in college (I'm reminded of the joke: What's the difference between a Liberal and a Conservative? 20 years). I also have Capitol Hill experience, as well as Lobbying experience ...

And the only hint that you'll get as to what my alias means is to say that I am a 3rd Degree Master Mason. :-)

Anyway, I've known H. Conway for several years now, and I look forward to contributing to his blog!

I would also like to welcome to the Heroes' Handbook fold, David, a veteran blogger and authority on the housing market.

He has seen much success with his own two blogs and I am excited to have him join in our political discussion.

I would like to announce the formation of our Heroes' Handbook contributors team.

As some of you may have noticed, we're going by pseudonyms. This is not for the purposes of pretending that we're cool or mysterious (I don't think...), but rather because some of us have the need to remain anonymous either to our students (like myself) or to the political party that he or she represents.

So, without further ado I would like to introduce Whorush (who has yet to post), RUGWdem (who just published his first posts today!) and me, H. Conway.

Feel free to say hi! :)

My first blog post! Wow!

As an active member of a political party organization, I will often be restrained in some of the points and opinions I can give but i will do my best to throw some perspective out there, sometimes simply play "Devil's Advocate," and hopefully enlighted with the experience I have gained in the professional politics field.

My first real post will be coming your way soon. Keep posted.

There is one thing I will consistantly be amazed by. That is the utter simplicity some poeple view politics. The thought process seems to be, "if we only go talk to them, and tell them why they are wrong and we are right, they'll have to come to our side." If only this were true.

Friends of mine have come to me and said, "why don't the Democrats speak up against the way the Republicans are ruining this country!" As much as I never thought I would be saying this, I agree with Nancy Polosi's plan (unmoving forehead, consistenently frightened eyebrowed look and all). The only way Democrats will win this November is to not stand up and argue with everyone about why Bush and his cronies are wrong, but to sit in the front row of the boxing match and and cheer as one Republican beats up another.

The Democrats never offered an alternative to Bush's social security plan and the plan was stopped amongst Republican infighting. The Democrats have never offered a plan for Iraq, and the Republicans are going to lose the House of Representatives this Novemeber over it. The old addage, "give someone enough rope and they'll eventually hang themselves," has never been more true.

To those that say, "the Democrats never put up a fight and now Bush has his suspension of Habeus Corpus, the ability to declare anyone an enemy combatant, and basically the ability to trample all of our civil liberties," I say to you, you can not govern unless you win. Once the Democrats are in power, you can change it back. But the more the Democrats say, the easier it will be for Karl Rove to throw their words back into their faces. The longer the Democrats stay silent, the longer Republicans have no choice but to argue with themselves...and touch children inappropriately. But I digress.

Yelling and screaming about the disturbing laws this rubber-stamp congress has passed along for Bush to sign now, mere weeks before election day, does nothing except weaken our chances of taking back one or both houses of Congress and raise the chances that instead of leading the the 110th Congress, we will spend another 2 years as minority bitchers. Constantly complaining, but having no method or outlet to change anything. Sometimes the best weapon isn't the argument over why someone is wrong and you are right, but to shut the hell up and let your opponents fight amongst themselves.

I just have to ask this question:

What are some opinions on Jimmy Carter? Those of you who already know me know where I stand (he stinks). But I'm always curious what others think. So do tell! And please explain why.

Also, I'm curious how much liberal nostalgia there is for George H.W. Bush. (I don't like him either!)

I promise longer posts on these two ex-presidents shortly. Just thought I'd take a little survey first.

Great news:

I'm giving a US History test on Tuesday!

Bad news:

I'm getting observed on Monday...

It will be during the Review game, which is Jeopardy-style. Last time I got observed (which was last March or April) it actually went well and it was also during a Review game. I decided to take the chance again by having my new supervisor come in for a class like that. Anyway, I think that even my naughty kids will be good for me during the observation. After all, certain ones of them came through for me last year. Well see...

Today was the day of the debate. I tried to set it up similar to the Institute for Political and Legal Education class that many high schools have. Alas, it often breaks down into insults being hurled across the room, but at least it's entertaining... Anyway, I thought my morning class did surprisingly well, but the afternoon class was kind of annoying. The two classes actually take turns being difficult on different days.

Although there was much complaining in both classes about having to take a position with which they did not agree, one girl in the morning class was a good sport and made a solid speech in front of the class. I was so proud :)

I'm thinking of doing a similar set up for a debate on the Spanish-American War in another couple of weeks. If it doesn't go smoothly I might just drop the format. Or maybe I'll just keep it for the first class if they can handle it.

Today in class I had my juniors write an opinion essay. The catch was that I assigned them to take a certain position on an issue...and it was not necessarily one with which they actually agree. For example, we are currently discussing the women's rights movement in the US and, specifically, the right for women to vote. I decided that I would assign all the guys to write in support of women's suffrage and all the girls to write against it. There was some (actually a lot) of complaining about having to defend (or support!) a position with which they did not agree, but that would have happened no matter what the assignment was... Anyway, some of them seemed to understand why I assigned the essay this way. We'll see how they do tomorrow when we have our organized debate in class!