Recession Very Likely In 2007

As the housing market continues to weaken it will have serious ramifications for the overall US economy. "The collapse of the housing bubble will throw the economy into a recession, and quite likely a severe recession," warned a July report by the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Furthermore, Lehman Brothers report, "[A] turn in the housing market is central to our economic forecast. " As reported by the AP on Nov 11, 2005:

A downturn in housing could mean more than 1.3 million lost jobs, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts, bumping up the national unemployment rate by 1 percent and the unemployment rate in house-mad California by 2 percent. Those numbers don't include likely job cuts in housing-dependent businesses, such as banking, furniture and building materials.

The Center for Economic and Policy Research predicts worse, saying a bubble burst would mean the loss of 5 million to 6.3 million jobs.

The housing run-up has financed consumer spending, creating more than $5 trillion in bubble wealth, the center estimates. Consumers have used "cash-out" mortgages to pay for everything from new kitchens to college tuition.

The current economic predicament is simply unsustainable. The double digit price appreciation of the housing boom years has come to an abrupt end. Once the housing bubble pops, a recession is almost inevitable. Here are other factors that will contribute to a future recession:

• High Energy Costs
• Federal Debt & Deficit
• Continuing Housing Bust
• High Consumer Debt
• Large Trade Deficit
• Continued Offshoring
• Security Costs

Billionaire speculator George Soros said he did not expect the United States to fall into recession in 2006 - but he does the following year.

For the past 4 years the US economic 'recovery' has been too dependent on cheap credit and the housing boom. The boom is fast becoming a bust. The convergence of the housing bust with other significant economic factors will very likely put the US into a recession by early 2007.

Traffic Declining on Heroes' Handbook

Traffic has been declining on thsi blog.

We need away to reverse this trend. How? Discuss!

An interesting quote

Since I deal with kids with special needs, I oftentimes have students that make less than appropriate decisions about how to spend time during "silent" work time. After discussing various strategies with colleagues, one of them said this:

"We are entrusted to make academic decisions for those students who refuse to make successful academic decisions for themselves."

In the real world, however, these students won't have us around to rely on. I'm not working with moderately- or severely-disabled kids anymore. The students I'm working with are "normal" but have a few learning difficulties. Is it really our place to make these decisions for these students, as my colleague suggests, or is it more of our responsibility to model proper decision-making techniques? Is it even our job to do that much? Should we just let the kids who don't care fail? Should we just let the kids who are too distracted to do their work fail?

Oy

It's been crunch time the past two weeks with grading papers and all. Things should calm down a bit by Thanksgiving.

The past two days I was away in Atlantic City for the New Jersey Education Association's teachers convention. Apparently other states don't have the luxury of getting off from school like we do. That's one of the good things about having such a powerful union here in Jersey :)

Anyway, the convention was fun. I got to hang out with one of my gorgeous co-workers and spend time getting feshnikert with her while watching the Rutgers football win on Thursday. And I learned a lot at the seminars! Don't worry: your children missed school for a good cause, I promise! :)

And there was also reason to party over the election. I do believe that the tide has begun to turn...

Who Will Control The US Congress

My predictions. Who will control the:

US Senate: Too Close To Call
US House: Democrats Will Win

Dear Hardcore Heroes' Handbook Readers...

I apologize for the dearth of posts in the past week. Things have been hectic at work and I haven't had an opportunity to write. School is going decently overall. I had to kick two kids out in the space of 3 minutes yesterday, but it put me in a good mood afterwards.

I finished the section of my book on General McClellan and now I'm on to "Fighting Joe" Hooker. I'm only a few pages into the chapter, but it's really remarkable so far. The author opens by making comparisons between him and Ulysses S. Grant. He shows how the two of them were so similar in terms of resume and accomplishment as of early 1863, but how Hooker was ultimately a failure as the top general, while Grant won the War. His point was that, for Lincoln, and other chief executives at the time, picking good generals was often a roll of the dice. He provides some examples to back up his point. I will have to think it over though before I pass judgment, though.

Btw, I am not posting extensively on the Kerry fiasco. If that's enough to make anyone vote Republican in this election, then you have tapioca pudding for brains. And that's me being nice. Anyway, I encourage people to post more comments! I'm curious what everyone thinks...provided we have readers left :(